Demon Deacons and Cavs meet in ACC affair

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Charlottesville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will attempt to snap their four-game losing streak tonight as they head to the John Paul Jones Arena for an Atlantic Coast Conference battle against the 19th- ranked Virginia Cavaliers.

This will be the 119th meeting between Wake Forest and Virginia. The Demon Deacons hold a 69-59 advantage in the rivalry after a 76-71 victory over the Cavaliers in last season's only encounter.

Wake Forest enters tonight's game 11-12 overall and 2-7 in ACC play after its 87-76 loss to the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday. The Demon Deacons had a strong offensive performance against NC State, as they made 50 percent of their field goals and 10-of-17 from three-point range, but they allowed NC State to knock down 52.5 percent of their shots. Head coach Jeff Bzdelik's team will have to focus on the defensive end if it wants to make a run in the ACC, as it ranks last in the league with an allowed average of 70.7 ppg.

The Demon Deacons are led by the ACC's top scoring duo of C.J. Harris and Travis McKie. Harris is ranked second in the conference in scoring with 17.5 ppg and McKie is a very close behind in fifth with an average of 15.8 ppg. McKie is also leading the team in rebounding with an average of 7.2 rpg. Ty Walker, Chase Fischer, and NikitaMescheriakov combined to contribute 33 points in the recent loss to NC State.

Head coach Tony Bennett's team comes in with a 18-4 overall record and a 5-3 mark in league play after its 58-55 loss to the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday. The Cavaliers overcame a double-digit deficit before losing the bout with Florida State. Virginia's four losses have been by a combined 10 points. Virginia is an elite team defensively as it ranks second in the nation in scoring defense with an allowed average of just 51.4 ppg on 39.2 percent shooting. Only four teams have eclipsed the 60-point mark against the Cavaliers this season. Virginia's focus on the defensive end has left it with a sub par scoring average of 63.9 ppg.

Forward Mike Scott continues to lead Virginia with averages of 17.0 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Scott is leading the ACC in field goal efficiency with a connection rate of 58.8 percent. Joe Harris complements Scott nicely from the guard slot. Harris is the team's second leading scorer with 12.7 ppg after he went 5-of-12 from the field to score 16 points against Florida State. Jontel Evans is the top distributor for the Cavaliers as he his dishing out a team- high 3.7 assists per contest.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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