Cavs and Bucks clash at the 'Q'

Basketball Betting Lines

02/10/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Cavaliers rookie Kyrie Irving probably won't play again tonight after suffering a concussion earlier this week, but Ramon Sessions will be there to pick up the slack.

Sessions filled in nicely for Irving the previous time out and looks for an encore performance versus the Milwaukee Bucks tonight from Quicken Loans Arena. Irving, the first overall pick in last summer's NBA Draft, did not play in Wednesday's 99-92 win over the Los Angeles Clippers and Sessions recorded season highs in points and assists with 24 and 13, respectively. Sessions is averaging 11.8 points, 8.6 assists and 4.0 rebounds in his last five games.

Irving, who is day-to-day, suffered a concussion after being kneed in the head during the fourth quarter of Tuesday's 107-91 loss to the Miami Heat. He experienced headaches after the game that worsened over the course of the night and during pregame activities prior to Wednesday's contest.

"Obviously you could feel sorry for yourself and say one of our best players is out and go in the tank, or you could respond like we did," said Cleveland head coach Byron Scott.

Antawn Jamison finished with 27 points and eight rebounds for Cleveland, which won for the fourth time in the past 12 games and opened a franchise-record nine-game homestand on a winning note. The Cavs' homestand is tied for the third longest in NBA history and they are 5-5 at the Q this season. Cleveland will also host the 76ers, Pacers, Heat, Kings, Pistons, Hornets and Celtics.

Over his last three games, Jamison is averaging 23.7 points and 8.7 boards.

Milwaukee will wrap up a quick two-game road trip Friday in the Forest City and was able to halt a three-game losing streak with a 105-99 victory at Toronto on Wednesday.

Carlos Delfino scored a season-high 25 points to lead six players in double figures, while Drew Gooden had his fifth double-double of the season with 20 points and 14 rebounds for the Bucks. Mike Dunleavy added 18 points, Stephen Jackson had 17, Brandon Jennings scored 11 and Luc Mbah a Moute netted 10 in a winning cause. Jennings is posting just 7.3 ppg in his last three contests.

"We got out to a good start in the first half. Got a little behind defensively in the second half," said Gooden. "Carlos did a job picking up for us where Mike left off in the first half."

Bucks forward Ersan Ilyasova did not play with back spasms and is listed as questionable for tonight's game. After visiting the Cavs at Quicken Loans Arena, Milwaukee will head to Brew City for a three-game homestand versus Orlando, Miami and New Orleans.

Gooden has scored 20-plus points in three straight games, averaging 23 points per game over that stretch. Milwaukee is only 4-10 as the guest this season.

Milwaukee and Cleveland are meeting for the first time since the Bucks took three of four meetings a year ago. The Cavs have still won 16 of the last 23 matchups with the Bucks, who are just 2-14 in the last 16 trips to the Q.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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